No
agenda set for the Referendum
By Darlington Muyambwa
11/28/11
Political parties are
interesting establishments because of how they are overly concerned with accessing,
gaining and retaining power.
In advanced societies they
ensure that they retain power through delivering political goods, they are
concerned with creating employment, facilitating economic growth and
guaranteeing liberty and freedoms for individuals.
The scenario is different in other
societies including ours where power is retained through social coercion and
propaganda, manipulation of different state arms along with downright violence
against dissenting voices.
An interesting case has arisen
again in Zimbabwe where the upcoming referendum has been rendered insignificant
as it threatens political interests. If done in the spirit of achieving long
term national good, the referendum can result in restraint on the corrupting
privileges enjoyed under the current set up and as such it is unpopular amongst
those that would want the status quo to remain intact.
Secondly the current political
dispensation has created a political culture where political negotiations and
outcomes supersede the will of the people expressed electorally or otherwise.
Simple trend analysis points
towards possibilities of a constitution negotiated along political lines. The
fact that the constitution will precede an election will intensify contestation
as the political party whose position gets popular approval in the referendum
will likely hold the aces going into an election.
If lessons are to be drawn from
the 2000 referendum, people’s choices will be determined more by their
political parties’ preferred positions as opposed to what the constitution
guarantees for them. The 2000 referendum arguably became the first
demonstration of negative public opinion for the political monopoly that had
existed since independence.
The current obsession with
ultimate power by sections of the inclusive government has made strategists,
political commentators and opinion leaders frame the next presidential election
as the most important in post independence Zimbabwe.
Due to political contestation,
the significance of the constitution making process as well as the referendum has
been lost among ordinary citizens. However, these two processes should lay the
foundation not only for short term political processes but for creation of independent
arms of the state that sufficiently counter-balance each other.. .
The centrality of the
constitution to long term stability can be understood in the context of how it
will outlive the GPA and all its principles. Societies famed for upholding
individual freedoms have well developed institutions derived from people
centered constitutions and if Zimbabweans aspire for those levels of tolerance
and peaceful co-existence, the constitution and referendum ought to be more
important than presidential elections.
There is little doubt that the
current inclusive government has been able to offer more political goods than
previous governments hence calls for elections represent nothing more than
wishes for a “winner takes it all” form of government. In our context, a one
party government means tolerance for corruption and governance malpractice in
the name of patronage.
Any meaningful discussions on
elections now should be on the referendum because contrary to political
posturing, the referendum should be the election of the decade if Zimbabwe is
to move towards more meaningful governance.
The dialogue of elections is
incomplete in that we are missing the fact that the referendum is also an
election that we should be wary of equally well or even more considering that
we are likely to record more voters than the other elections.
The referendum to me will define
the political landscape. Depending on the outcome of the referendum Zimbabwe is
likely to enter into a new dispensation.
As people opinionate over this
negotiated constitution that will come our way, opinions will once again be
drawn along political lines.
I have proposed three scenarios to
explain possible referendum outcomes.
The first is when the parties in
the inclusive government will agree on the draft and then the people of
Zimbabwe will rally behind their political leaders and support them by giving
the needed ‘yes’ vote. This is arguably the best scenario and easiest one if
the parties are serious about wanting a less contested presidential election
and the transition we all need.
The second scenario is one where
politicians agree but the civil society and some sections of the society do not
and likewise will stage a campaign for a “No” vote. This will be interesting as
political party leaders will try to silence dissenting voices. It will be more
interesting now as political parties through their leadership are preaching for
peace, something that the politics of this country had dismissed in time of
real political contestations. This scenario is likely to be so if the political
parties want to reduce the document into a political settlement that does not
in any way reflect the needs of the people.
The third scenario which is the
bloodiest and probably unsurprising is one that requires our deep thoughts
around. This scenario is where the two parties continue to fight along part
positions. This scenario is most likely
if the political parties refuse to divorce constitution making from immediate
political gains.
In all the analysis key
questions emerge on the role of parliament and most importantly the police if
violence erupts. We already have latent political hatred and political leaders
are aware of this and when faced with political losses will they not choose
that route?
There are further questions on
what becomes of the constitution in the event of a “No” vote prevailing. Will the country be forced into an election at
political parties’ earliest convenience?
Will citizens simply lament about
the constitution and the change that could have been? Does COPAC have answers or again-as the trend
suggest, principles of the GPA will come with answers after negotiations by 5
men and 1 woman from the 3 political parties?
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